Barcelona and Chelsea in Champions League

Does it feel to you like we have been in this place before? Like Bill Murray in Groundhog Day, doomed to repeat the same mistakes over and again, until life's lessons are learned and the repetitive loop of fate is broken, that here we have Chelsea FC entering the Camp Nou as one of the few teams in Europe that can consider itself Barcelona's equal if not more. They have the record to prove it really; they haven't lost to the blaugrana at the Camp Nou since February of 2006, they have four draws, and two massive losses, both at Stamford Bridge, with the most recent being last week's debacle in the rain, so there is some precedence coming into this deciding match tonight. The weight of history is quite honestly stacked against Barça.

The expectation is that this historical trend will continue, Chelsea proving that they have some key to unlock Barcelona's attack, something extra that few clubs that were not managed by José Mourinho have. It's a duel of mythical proportions sure, the clichéd irresistible force/immovable object, a battle between conflicting ideologies really, and not just in the fact that one attacks and the other defends, waiting for the opportunity to exploit mistakes, but in that one is a force of innovation, changing it's approach and in constant motion, and the other revels in its staid conservatism, its refusal to change and adapt its style beyond the Mourinho framework.

I don't think it's that simple-predicting another Chelsea master-class in defense. Sooner or later the innovator cracks the code, beats the spread, advances through adversity. Barcelona were close last week in West London and now they are on their pitch. Mourinho's Real Madrid just beat them in the league with much the same tactics, but those were fresher legs last Saturday, better to park the bus with, and more invention and skill to take advantage of Barça mistakes. Barcelona were also playing with youngsters Cristian Tello and Thiago Alcántar on the left side of attack and three at the back, resting Pique, with Adriano helping Mascherano and Puyol in defense. The formation is in doubt, whether they will play a 4-3-3 or a 3-4-3, but most certainly they will play their millionaire signings: Cesc, Messi and Alexis will play up front in interweaving patterns of attack,. Iniesta will link with midfield and jump into attack. Xavi with his tired legs set to compose from the back whereas last week he was more the last attacking option in the box. Busquets, Mascherano and Pique will anchor the middle in some form or another, and Puyol and Alves will take the wings.

Chelsea manager Roberto DiMatteo has said that his club will attack and try to nick the insurance goal, but that's unlikely. They will try to pounce again on a Barcelona mistake in the box or on a set-piece against the smaller blaugrana, and they will try to extend their run against FC Barcelona, but I think this is that moment of critical mass, the threshold, the boiling point or tipping point as Malcolm Gladwell calls it and Barça throws off their bugaboo.

My prediction: 3-0 at home to Barcelona and they go through.